By Scott P. Shaffer
CEO and Chief Innovator
The Pondering Primate
November 14, 2007
1. Personalized medicine - With the initial mapping of the human genome, scientists are moving rapidly toward the following likely breakthroughs for gene-based products and services:
creation of an individual's genome map for a retail price of less than $1,000
correlation of specific genes and proteins with specific cancers, Alzheimer's, heart disease, and diabetes, which will allow both physicians and patients to anticipate, plan for, and mitigate, if not cure, DNA-based health challenges
development of pharmaceuticals that treat gene-based diseases, replacing surgeries and chemotherapy
2. Distributed energy (DE) (The Next Internet) - The evolution of distributed energy will reflect that of computing: just as computing has migrated from the 20th century's centralized model (powerful mainframes delivering applications to remote workstations) to today's decentralized model (PCs and networks), so energy generation and delivery will move from central sources to DE, increasingly featuring local generators that can be linked when needed for greater output. Specific innovations will include:
advanced electric storage devices and batteries at all scales
new power systems with source-switching flexibility
new energy management systems
3. Pervasive computing - (Physical World Connection) Almost every device or object in consumers' lives will be both smart and networked, giving rise to an "Internet of things." Pervasive computing will drive the convergence of computing, Internet access, voice communications, and television-ultimately blurring categories of infotech products and services. Specific breakthroughs will include:
very simple and inexpensive computing devices with integrated wireless telephone and Internet capabilities (the worldwide $100 computer)
the "semantic Web," enabled by Web data that automatically self-organizes based on its content, allowing search tools or software agents to identify the actual relevance of Web pages-not just find keywords on them
intelligent interfaces, in some cases enabled by virtual reality
4. Nanomaterials - Although nanotechnologies have received much attention, the R&D is progressing very slowly. But the experts expect major breakthroughs within the next two decades, including inexpensive ways to produce mass quantities of nanomaterials. In addition, the function of nanomaterials will move from "passive" to "active" with the integration of nanoscale valves, switches, pumps, motors, and other components.
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